After the “double festival”, the domestic fertilizer products mostly show weak operation, affected by the contradiction between supply and demand, nitrogen and potassium market continues to weaken, and the price keeps on declining. At present, the price of small granule urea in Shandong area dropped to RMB 2,330/ton, down RMB 100/ton compared with the pre-holiday period; the price of 60% potassium powder in the port was RMB 2,550-2,650/ton, down RMB 50/ton compared with the pre-holiday period. Downstream Compound fertilizer market is also due to insufficient release of winter storage demand, the center of gravity of trading downward finishing. However, as a compound fertilizer is another major phosphorus element - ammonium phosphate market is to maintain the plate with a stable operation, prices remain firm, then the end of the fall market, winter storage market temporary wait-and-see state, ammonium phosphate prices can continue?
First, to be sent to continue to support September, China’s MAP market shocks and ups and downs, the first half of the autumn sales market gradually entered the second half, the downstream gap is not big, coupled with urea to limit the export of news that makes the industry mentality frustrated, downstream fill orders slowed down, the price appeared to stabilize in a slight decline, the range of about 50 yuan / ton near; and the middle and end of the second half of the Northeast market demand appeared, the autumn sales and the winter storage connected, MAP factory orders in advance continued to receive Increase. At present, some of the MAP plant pending more than can be implemented to the end of October or mid-November near, even if small enterprises without the Northeast order, but also East China, North China, Guangxi region a small number of orders, there is also part of the pending, there is no sales pressure, MAP plant offer to remain firm.
Second, the current phosphate rock high and stable, by the double holiday transportation and weather impact, Hubei production decreased slightly, after the festival is gradually recovering, the current low mine inventory, some enterprises are selling, the market spot is less, the supply tends to tighten. At present, Guizhou 30% grade phosphate rock mainstream plate price of 940-1000 yuan / ton; Hubei Yichang 28% grade phosphate ore shipboard offer 950-970 yuan / ton, 25% grade shipboard price of 800 yuan / ton; Sichuan Mabian area 25% grade phosphate ore county delivery price of 650-750 yuan / ton; Yunnan 28% grade mainstream mining enterprises ex-factory price of 930-980 yuan / ton. The production of MAP in phosphate rock consumption accounted for the largest proportion of phosphate rock supply tight price, continue to give favorable cost support.
Third, the supply gradually decline
After the holiday, the domestic MAP industry capacity utilization rate declined. As of this Thursday’s statistics, the current capacity utilization rate of MAP industry 61.29%, down 1.65 percentage points from the pre-holiday period. Recent device production cuts, maintenance plan frequently: in the middle of this month, some factory have maintenance plan rumors; Hubei six countries on the 20th of this month overhaul; One factory has been shut down for maintenance. Next week, the domestic MAP industry capacity utilization rate will continue to decline, the overall supply side will continue to show a shrinking trend.
In summary, the current MAP autumn sales market has ended, but factories still hold some to be issued, winter storage demand still exists, and phosphate ore into December after some mines will usher in the traditional mining period, when the supply will continue to tighten, phosphate prices will remain high and firm, the cost side is still supportive; in addition to the tight supply of phosphate rock at a high price, order restrictions, routine maintenance and other factors, some of the MAP device into overhaul, Rotation maintenance state, the supply side will appear to shrink, into the production reduction and price situation.
Post time: Oct-18-2023